Opening up the week of Thanksgiving, November 19, 2012 activity was already expected to be light in terms of market movement. Not surprisingly, everyone is looking for a holiday break and a rest from the downturn of the markets last week after the Presidential election.
Fortunately, Monday’s report release on housing data showed some positive signs with October existing home sale transaction data coming in slightly higher than expected at 4.79 million units. Additionally, national housing market indexes came in higher than expected as well. However, while normally mortgage rates would rise on such information, Monday’s rates stayed stubbornly low. Investors were playing conservative with very light trading activity and instead taking a watch-and-see position.The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average has slightly up-ticked to 3.43 percent versus Friday’s position of 3.37 percent. The 15-year counterpart also increased by have the rise to 2.78 percent versus Friday’s 2.75 percent. Alternatively, the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage average barely budged to 3.01 percent, crossing the 3 point figure from 2.99 percent Friday.Some may try to take heart in the above figures, but just looking at a historical chart of 2012 alone and then for the last few years, the writing seems to be on the wall that mortgage rates will continue to seek lower levels until the economy really starts picking up again. As noted previously, there was some home that if a Republican was voted in as President, a turnaround would occur sooner. However, when the results appeared after Ohio’s polling reports came in on Election night, Wall Street’s political hopes were dashed for another four years. So now the question is how long with the slow “recovery” take before the economic engine begins to charge up, pushing home sales and home financing as well.
The rest of the holiday week is expected to be light if anything at all. More attention will be focused on retail sales on Black Friday as an indicator of economic tides than mortgage news. The same trend will likely continue into December as all economic eyes will focus more on retail than anything else.